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PrintFantasy Football Draft Guide: 12-Team PPR Draft Strategy
Draft Strategy: Tips & Tricks
Discover 7 expert-level drafting tips.
3 fatal drafting mistakes you must avoid.
Round-by-Round Draft Guide
Top targets & alternate picks for each round.
Based on the latest rankings & ADP data.
Advanced Draft Strategy
7 key strategies for tailored player rankings.
Live-draft sync strategizes while you draft.
Draft Strategy: Tips & Tricks
7 Expert-Level Drafting Tips
1. Use Unique Rankings To Give Yourself an Edge
Many of your competitors will be drafting off of the same rankings (think: ESPN or Yahoo). Tough to get an edge that way. Put in the work. Stay up-to-date on the news. And don’t be afraid to break away from the herd when it comes to your rankings. It’s an easy way to out-draft your competition.
2. Weaponize ADP To Outsmart Your Competition
ADP is like having your opponent’s playbook. Whether subconsciously or not, ADP has a huge influence on draft behavior. Drafters rarely stray too far from it. Knowing which players your opponents are likely – and unlikely – to draft next can give you a big strategic advantage. (Hint: Use our ADP Market Index to help.)
3. Catch League-Winning Breakout Candidates
Leagues are won by nailing one or two breakout late-round picks. Think Jayden Daniels or Brian Thomas Jr. last year. When you’re on the clock and deciding between two or more players, always ask yourself: “Which of these guys is more likely to be the league-winning, had-to-have player?” Then take that guy.
4. Learn to Predict Your Opponents’ Picks
Drafting is part science (rankings, ADP, positional value) and part art. No two drafts will play out same. It’s your job to recognize the flow of your draft and react accordingly. It’s especially important to track positional needs. For example, if teams near you have selected a bunch of WRs but few RBs, you can assume they’ll be targeting RBs soon. Get out ahead of them and snag a RB with your next pick.
5. Discover the Next Bucky Irving
Let your league mates waste later-round picks on handcuffing their own RBs. You can get the jump on them by targeting RBs behind fragile starters. That was Irving, Tyrone Tracy, and Rico Dowdle this time last year. And we’re eyeing some intriguing new candidates for 2025.
6. Draft Immobile QBs in 2025 (Wait … What?!)
Running QBs are fantasy gold. Problem is, that’s no longer a secret. In many cases, the pendulum has swung too far toward those guys. And that’s turned some less-mobile QBs into values. Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott pop as undervalued QBs in 2025 drafts – despite their lack of rushing yards.
7. Chase opportunity at RB… and talent at WR
Fantasy scoring at RB is closely tied to playing time and touches. Target RBs who project to get the rock a lot. WR is a more talent-driven position. Targets are earned, not given. That’s why advanced metrics like targets per route and yards per route run should be key factors in your WR rankings.
3 Fatal Draft Mistakes
1. Don't Match Your Rankings To Last Year’s Stats (Consider What's Changed)
Overweighing last year's fantasy finishes could cost you on draft day. Too much changes from year to year. That includes coaching staffs, offensive schemes, rookies, free agents, etc. That’s why it’s crucial that you live in the present – and weigh all the offseason changes when creating your 2025 player rankings.
2. Don’t Be Stubborn About Your Pre-Draft Plan
Instead, be flexible. You might go in with a Zero-RB strategy. But if enough teams grab WRs by the second round – a workhorse RB might fall into your lap. That’s when it’s time to scoop up the player who will best help your team win … not reach for a position because it was part of your pre-draft plan.
3. Don’t Pass Up Player Value to Chase Positional ‘Need’
NFL teams that try to fill “needs” (instead of adopting the “best player available” model) most often crap out on their draft picks. Same holds true for you. Reaching for a “need” player most often blows your chances at winning. And remember: Drafting the best player available gives you valuable trade chips down the road.
Advanced Draft Strategy
7 Key Strategies for Tailored Player Rankings
The most advanced fantasy football draft strategy for any format, and any league, is a “Value Based Draft Strategy.” It can take different forms, and be based on any number of draft-value indicators.
Draft Sharks' value-based draft strategy actually has 17 Draft Value Indicators. Here are 7 crucial ones you can use in your draft:
1. Master Cross Positional Value
Which positions are most valuable in your league? Maybe QBs in a superflex. How do RBs stack up vs. WRs in PPR leagues? Understanding values across positions involves using a specific algorithm to analyze player values. It weighs various factors like scoring rules, starting-lineup requirements, ADP, and league settings.
2. Track Positional Scarcity on the Fly
This one is super important but also super hard. To measure positional scarcity, you need to track each pick – and see how it impacts the player pool. If there are seven QBs taken by the fifth round, that position becomes scarce. And QBs suddenly increase in value in your draft.
3. Prioritize Players With Greater Upside
You’re in the 11th round and torn between three players with roughly the same draft value. You need to highlight the player with the highest fantasy ceiling. Then make sure he doesn't slip by you in the heat of the draft. It might sound simple, but it’s mission-critical to identify these breakout players and pull the trigger when the time is right.
4. Look Out for “Bust” Red Flags
You probably know the red flags of a potential bust. But are you factoring them into your value of each player? Age, declining production, bad offensive line, competition for touches, a new offensive scheme that de-emphasizes a player’s role. Don’t blow your draft capital on a player who is screaming “bust!”
5. Use a Scientific Injury Risk Assessment
You know the scenario… You spend a second-round pick on a stud WR – and in Week 2, he suffers a soft-tissue injury and misses the next four weeks. Brutal. Injuries aren’t 100% predictable. But you can get reliable scientific data to avoid the biggest potential injury risk players.
6. Always Use Correlated ADP
This one is huge. Using ADP (Average Draft Position) is the ultimate measure to find value. The problem is this: If you use a redraft PPR ADP to prepare for your non-PPR Dynasty league, you’re doing yourself more harm than good. Find reliable ADP that is correlated to your specific rules and format.
7. Avoid Bye-Week Conflicts
You’d think this one would be so easy. But you know the truth. You’re in the heat of your draft, you’re on the clock, and bang … you double-up on the same bye week at a crucial position. You’re now forced to fix that mistake at some point in your draft – or later in your season.
Key Insight: There are a lot of factors that go into drafting for true player value. It’s not just about using “position tiers” or employing a “Zero” or “Hero” RB strategy. It’s about using a mix of scientific metrics and educated guesses in predicting player production. And how you and your opponents behave during critical times in your draft.
How To Execute This Strategy: You’ve got a lot to focus on if you want to execute these draft strategies in real-time – amid the chaos of your draft. In fact, it’s humanly impossible for anyone to implement every key strategy… AND work out every algorithm essential to a winning draft.
The real solution is to get real-time help from an AI “Draft War Room.”
Discover the Live-Draft Sync That Strategizes While You Draft
If what you’ve read so far makes sense, here’s a draft tool you need to learn more about.
It’s actually TWO tools that pair together so you can dominate your draft with one super tool!
A live-draft sync super-powered by the “Draft War Room” (DWR)
This super draft tool automatically re-ranks players on your draft board in real-time. Those dynamic player values are based on a variety of factors, including positional scarcity, team needs, injury risk, breakout potential, and bust risk. In fact, there are 17 draft-value indicators it calculates in real-time to come up with your player suggestions.
How It Works: You're just three clicks away from your league and draft being live-synced. From there, you’re on the road to draft domination. And it works across multiple platforms (ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, Underdog, and Sleeper, to name a few). For multiple league formats (dynasty, rookie, keeper, best ball, auction, superflex – and, of course, redraft).
What It Means For You: You get dynamic player values customized to your league. Simply. And in real-time. When it's your turn to pick, the Draft War Room offers instant player suggestions tailored to everything happening in your draft. You’ll be unburdened from the pressure of being "on the clock." While at the same time getting specific player suggestions that are scientifically based and strategically sound.
Key Insights: No one who’s serious about winning their draft can use 2015 technology in the competitive environment of 2025. It’s really that simple. We know too much about the science behind successful drafting to keep basing decisions on “gut” and “educated guesses.” Yes, sometimes we roll with those two things. But we need to have a lot more (technology) at our disposal to be consistent fantasy football champions.
How to Execute This Strategy: Make sure you pick a “live-draft sync” over a simple “league sync.” A league sync doesn't work during your draft to adjust player values in real-time. To learn more about the live-sync option, check out this page explaining our live-sync tool.
More Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Guides (Coming Soon!)
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Fantasy Football Draft Guide: Winning Picks in Every Round
Fantasy drafts demand precision. Every pick means weighing scoring rules, positional value, team needs, ADP trends, upside, and injury risk — all under the pressure of the clock. Miss the mark, and your season can skid off course before it even begins.
And let’s be real: There’s nothing worse than watching your early-round picks flop while your buddy snags late-round breakouts who carry him to a title. That stings.
Your solution: A round-by-round draft strategy guide to maximize value with every pick.
This 12-team PPR draft strategy guide highlights top targets and fallback options for every pick of your draft.
We’ve baked in our 3D Values alongside the latest ADP to help you zero in on the best choices each round.
Consider this your game plan heading into your draft.
No fantasy football draft goes exactly as planned, of course. You’ll likely need to adjust your strategy throughout the draft to maximize value.
That’s where the dynamic fantasy football cheat sheet on your Draft War Room comes into play, instantly analyzing 17 value indicators each time you’re on the clock to help you make the best pick.
Combine the Draft War Room with this round-by-round game plan and you’ll be armed with the ultimate fantasy football draft guide.
Note: This strategy guide assumes a 16-round draft and starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 DST. The Draft War Room will help you adjust your strategy if your league settings are different.
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Fantasy football league sync makes drafting easier with customized rankings and real-time adjustments. Sync your league now!
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for Pick 1, 2, or 3
Round 1
Top target: Ja’Marr Chase
Chase is the clear No. 1 player in our 2025 fantasy football rankings.
He racked up 1,708 yards and 17 TDs last season, scoring 86 more PPR points than any other WR. He’s back in the same offense with the same QB in 2025. And he’s just hitting his prime at age 25.
Chase boasts a very attractive combination of safety and upside.
Next best: CeeDee Lamb
You might find Falcons RB Bijan Robinson ranked just ahead of Lamb, depending on your league rules. He's a strong pick here if you'd prefer an elite RB in Round 1.
But in this particular setup, Lamb holds a slight edge in value. He averaged 10.5 targets across eight games with QB Dak Prescott last year after leading the league with 181 total targets in 2023.
With Prescott back and HC Brian Schottenheimer likely to lean into the pass, Lamb leads all players in our 2025 target projections.
Other options:
- Bijan Robinson
Rounds 2 & 3
Top targets: Jonathan Taylor & Tee Higgins
Taylor is the forgotten elite RB.
He missed three games last season. But in the other 14, he averaged 21.6 carries and 102 rushing yards. Those marks ranked first and third league-wide.
Indianapolis’ QB situation adds some risk to Taylor’s 2025 outlook. And, frankly, he’d be a better bet for fantasy points with Daniel Jones vs. Anthony Richardson.
But that risk is more than baked into this late-second-round price tag. Taylor looks like a rock-solid top-10 fantasy RB with upside into the top 5.
The big four-year deal he signed this offseason keeps Higgins tied to one of the game’s best QBs and one of its pass-heaviest offenses.
That environment helped Higgins rank fifth among WRs in PPR points per game last year. It was his third top-12 finish among the last four seasons.
Yeah, the injuries can be annoying. But Higgins is a good bet for WR1-level production again in 2025. That’s nice to land in the second or third round.
Next best: Breece Hall & Tyreek Hill
Hall disappointed last season in what turned out to be an underwhelming Aaron Rodgers-led Jets offense.
New York’s swap from Rodgers to Justin Fields this offseason should mean a massive boost in run rate. Yes, Fields will siphon some of those additional carries. But expect Hall to be a bigger focal point of the offense this year.
The 24-year-old is just a season removed from a RB2 finish in PPR points and is a strong bounce-back bet in 2025.
Like Hall, Hill is coming off a letdown campaign. There are some red flags in terms of his age (31) and 2024 metrics. But it’s worth remembering that he played through a wrist injury all year that required offseason surgery.
We don’t expect Hill to return to truly elite levels, but the risk/reward equation feels right in the third round.
Other options:
- Josh Jacobs
- Chase Brown
- Davante Adams
The Draft War Room is the most powerful drafting tool in fantasy football.
Rounds 4 & 5
Top targets: Alvin Kamara & Jalen Hurts
Kamara was awesome last year, leading all RBs in PPR points per game and ranking fifth in expected PPR points per game.
He turns 30 in July, so there’s clearly decline risk here. But Kamara improved in rush yards over expected per attempt and yards after contact per attempt from 2023 to 2024. And, most importantly, he’s remained a huge part of New Orleans’ passing game. No RB has more total receptions than Kamara over the last two seasons.
Even if the rushing production tails off in 2025, the receiving should make Kamara a substantial value at this price tag.
Hurts is on sale this year coming off a 2024 that was only relatively disappointing. He still finished fifth among QBs in fantasy points per game — after back-to-back QB2 finishes.
Hurts set career highs in multiple passing metrics last year, despite WR A.J. Brown, WR Devonta Smith, and TE Dallas Goedert all missing multiple games. And he remains easily the best bet for rushing TDs at the position.
Next best: Joe Mixon & George Kittle
Mixon ranked fourth among RBs in expected PPR points per game and sixth in actual points across his 12 full games last year. He averaged 19.3 carries and 3.8 targets in those outings.
Heading into year two of a three-year, $25.5 million contract, Mixon is a good bet to play a workhorse role for the Texans again in 2025. The current version of Nick Chubb is not a significant threat to Mixon's volume.
If you're feeling good about your RB and WR rooms at this point, consider snagging an elite TE here.
Kittle — not Brock Bowers or Trey McBride — led all TEs in PPR points per game last year. And, with Deebo Samuel gone and Brandon Aiyuk working back from a multi-ligament knee injury, Kittle should continue to play a huge role in San Francisco's passing game this season.
Note: We don't recommend taking Hurts and Kittle at this turn. Spending two of your first five picks on 'onesie' positions will leave you too thin at RB and/or WR.
Other options:
- Ken Walker
- D.K. Metcalf
- Xavier Worthy
Rounds 6 & 7
Top targets: James Conner & Chris Olave
Death, taxes, and James Conner being underrated by fantasy drafters.
Conner has turned in back-to-back top-15 finishes in PPR points per game – but is once again being drafted outside the top 20 at his position.
He’s a strong value here and should be your top priority, especially if you’re still looking for your RB2.
Olave carries injury and QB risk.
But we’re also talking about a 24-year-old former first-round pick who has topped a 23% target share and 2.0 yards per route in each of his first three NFL seasons.
He's as talented a player as you'll find at this point of your draft. And new HC Kellen Moore figures to deploy a fast-paced, high-volume offense, creating more target upside for Olave.
James Conner and Chris Olave figure to pop as strong targets in Rounds 6 and 7 on your Draft War Room.
Next best: Aaron Jones & Patrick Mahomes
Jones is 30 now and faces tougher competition this season from RB Jordan Mason. But that's all more than baked into this price tag.
Jones ranked 12th among RBs in PPR points last year, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per catch. We're projecting him to cede some carries to Mason this season, but Jones is a safe bet to dominate passing-down work again. He's topped 50 catches in three of his last four seasons.
Mahomes was a fantasy waste last year, finishing QB11 in points and registering only two top-five scoring weeks.
It wasn’t for lack of opportunity, though. Mahomes actually ranked second among QBs in expected fantasy points per game.
I’ll gladly bet on an all-world talent regressing to the mean in that department – especially with arguably the best WR trio he’s ever had at his disposal in Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown.
Don't feel obliged to take a QB here, though. There will be plenty of strong values in the next few rounds.
Other options:
- David Montgomery
- Isiah Pacheco
- Jakobi Meyers
- Deebo Samuel
- Khalil Shakir
Rounds 8 & 9
Top targets: Travis Kelce & Jaylen Warren
We need to recalibrate our outlook for Kelce, who is clearly well past his prime. He set career lows last year in multiple categories, including yards per target and yards per route. His 12.3 PPR points per game were his fewest since 2015.
But those 12.3 PPR points per game were still good for seventh among TEs. Kelce ranked second at the position in expected PPR points per game, so his role was still awesome.
Even if Kelce takes another step back in 2025, he’s a solid value at this price.
Warren struggled with injuries early last season but rebounded to average 4.5 yards per carry over his final 11 games.
He should maintain a change-of-pace, pass-catching role at minimum this season. And, if rookie RB Kaleb Johnson falters, there's upside for Warren to take on more carries.
Next best: Justin Fields & Josh Downs
It's not always pretty, but Fields has consistently produced as a QB1 with upside thanks to his high-end rushing production. His 50.2 rushing yards per game rank second among QBs over the last four seasons – behind only Lamar Jackson.
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For more on Fields, check out 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers.
Downs was awesome in per-route metrics last season but was held back by QB Anthony Richardson. In games with QB Joe Flacco, he ranked 17th among WRs in PPR points per game.
Downs should get better QB play this season, whether it's from an improved Richardson or Daniel Jones.
Other options
- Travis Etienne
- Darnell Mooney
- Michael Pittman
- T.J. Hockenson
Rounds 10 & 11
Top targets: Tyjae Spears & Rashid Shaheed
Spears was banged up for much of last season but flashed late with three straight top-12 PPR finishes from Weeks 15-17. He’s at worst a strong handcuff to Tony Pollard and at best a half of a committee and standalone fantasy option.
Shaheed drew a 23.3% target share and averaged 2.04 yards per route before a season-ending knee injury in Week 6 last year. Those were both top-30 marks among WRs.
He's back to 100% now and remains locked in as New Orleans’ No. 2 WR. The Saints project for a significant spike in play volume under new HC Kellen Moore.
Next best: Keon Coleman & David Njoku
Coleman wasn't much of a fantasy asset last year but did some exciting things for his 2025 outlook. He was used deep downfield, was productive after the catch, and drew a lot of targets near the end zone.
Now heading into year two with plenty of opportunity in a high-scoring Bills offense, Coleman is a legit breakout candidate.
Njoku might be the single best value at TE. He averaged 9.9 targets and scored as the TE6 across nine healthy games last season. That followed TE6 and TE9 finishes the previous two years.
He'll remain a big part of Cleveland's passing game in 2025 and is a good bet for top-10 production.
Other options:
- Justin Herbert
- Dak Prescott
- Javonte Williams
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Christian Kirk
- Jonnu Smith
Rounds 12 & 13
Top target: Tank Bigsby & J.K. Dobbins
We're generally looking to target high-ceiling bench stash RBs at this point of the draft. Bigsby and Dobbins fit.
Jacksonville's backfield is crowded, but Bigsby could emerge as the lead ball carrier. He was impressive last year, ranking top-9 among 47 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per carry, and rush yards over expected per attempt.
Dobbins will battle for snaps and touches with R.J. Harvey in Denver. The rookie is certainly the more exciting player (which is why he goes multiple rounds earlier in drafts). But don't count out Dobbins' chances of earning a significant role, especially in high-value situations such as passing downs and near the goal line.
Next best: Trevor Lawrence & Ray Davis
Target Lawrence here if you're still looking for your QB1 (or want a high-upside QB2). He was a big offseason winner, getting a coaching upgrade in Liam Coen and another explosive weapon in Travis Hunter. Lawrence can add value with his legs, too, giving him top-12 fantasy upside.
TIP
Prioritizing high-upside players in the later rounds is 1 of 7 key tenets of our fantasy football draft strategy.
Davis is another upside RB stash. There's a chance he earns additional work behind James Cook this season and becomes a RB3 or flex option. But, at minimum, he's a high-end handcuff in a strong offense. Davis racked up 152 total yards on 23 touches when Cook missed Week 6 last year.
Other options:
- C.J. Stroud
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Austin Ekeler
- Rachaad White
- Jaydon Blue
- Cedric Tillman
- Dalton Kincaid
- Jake Ferguson
Rounds 14, 15 & 16
Top targets: High-upside bench stash, K & DST
Target a player with big upside in Round 14. You can sort by projected ceiling in your Draft War Room to find players with difference-making upside.
Some names to consider:
- Anthony Richardson
- Isaac Guerendo
- Jaylen Wright
- MarShawn Lloyd
- Roschon Johnson
- Diontae Johnson
- Pat Bryant
- Jalen Coker
- Jalen McMillan
- Pat Freiermuth
Use your final two picks on a kicker and DST. Target a kicker on a strong offense. We recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at DST throughout the season.
Here are three DSTs with favorable early-season schedules:
- Broncos (vs. TEN, at IND)
- Steelers (at NYJ, vs. SEA, at NE)
- 49ers (at SEA, at NO)
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for Pick 4, 5, or 6
Round 1
Top target: CeeDee Lamb
Our projections have this as a toss-up between Lamb and RB Bijan Robinson. Considering what will likely be available to us in the next few rounds, I lean ever-so-slightly to Lamb as the pick.
He and his QB dealt with injuries last year. But Lamb was sitting sixth among WRs in PPR points per game in eight outings with Dak Prescott after leading the position in points per game in 2023.
Lamb will continue to see a ton of targets this season in what projects as a pass-leaning offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer.
Next best: Bijan Robinson
Robinson is coming off a RB4 PPR finish and was even better over the second half of the season, ranking second in expected points per game and third in actual points.
Just hitting his peak at 23 years old, Robinson is as good a bet as anyone to lead RBs in fantasy points this season.
Other options:
- Justin Jefferson
- Puka Nacua
Round 2
Top target: Jonathan Taylor
The forgotten elite RB.
Taylor missed three games last season. But in the other 14, he averaged 21.6 carries and 102 rushing yards per game. Those marks ranked first and third league-wide.
Indianapolis’ QB situation adds some risk to Taylor’s 2025 outlook. And, frankly, he’d be a better bet for fantasy points with Daniel Jones vs. Anthony Richardson.
But that risk is more than baked into this late-second-round price tag. Taylor looks like a rock-solid top-10 fantasy RB with upside into the top 5.
Next best: Tee Higgins
The big four-year deal he signed this offseason keeps Higgins tied to one of the game’s best QBs and one of its pass-heaviest offenses.
That environment helped Higgins rank fifth among WRs in PPR points per game last year. It was his third top-12 finish among the last four seasons.
Yeah, the injuries can be annoying. But Higgins is a good bet for WR1-level production again in 2025. That’s nice to land in the second or third round.
Other options:
- Rashee Rice
- Brock Bowers
Round 3
Top target: Tyreek Hill
Hill is coming off a disappointing 2024 campaign. There are some red flags in terms of his age (31) and 2024 metrics. But it’s worth remembering that he played through a wrist injury all year that required offseason surgery.
We don’t expect Hill to return to truly elite levels, but the risk/reward equation feels right in the third round.
Next best: Breece Hall
Hall is also coming off a disappointing season in what turned out to be an underwhelming Aaron Rodgers-led Jets offense.
New York’s swap from Rodgers to Justin Fields this offseason should mean a massive boost in run rate. Yes, Fields will siphon some of those additional carries. But expect Hall to be a bigger focal point of the offense this year.
The 24-year-old is just a season removed from a RB2 finish in PPR points and is a strong bounce-back bet in 2025.
Other options:
- Chase Brown
- Mike Evans
- Davante Adams
- Trey McBride
Round 4
Top target: Jalen Hurts
Hurts is on sale this year coming off a 2024 that was only relatively disappointing. He still finished fifth among QBs in fantasy points per game, after back-to-back QB2 finishes.
Hurts set career highs in multiple passing metrics last year, despite WR A.J. Brown, WR Devonta Smith, and TE Dallas Goedert all missing multiple games. And he remains easily the best bet for rushing TDs at the position.
Next best: D.K. Metcalf
Metcalf should dominate targets in Pittsburgh and has huge TD upside with QB Aaron Rodgers.
Metcalf owns a career 11.0% TD rate, while Rodgers' 6.1% career TD rate is second highest among all active QBs with 1,000+ pass attempts
Other options:
- Xavier Worthy
- DeVonta Smith
- George Kittle
3D Values identify exactly what a player is worth in YOUR league.
Round 5
Top target: Alvin Kamara
Kamara was awesome last year, leading all RBs in PPR points per game and ranking fifth in expected PPR points per game.
He turns 30 in July, so there’s clearly decline risk here. But Kamara actually improved in rush yards over expected per attempt and yards after contact per attempt from 2023 to 2024. And, most importantly, he’s remained a huge part of New Orleans’ passing game. In fact, no RB has more total receptions than Kamara over the last two seasons.
Even if the rushing production tails off in 2025, the receiving should make Kamara a strong value at this price tag.
Next best: Joe Mixon
Mixon ranked fourth among RBs in expected PPR points per game and sixth in actual points across his 12 full games last year. He averaged 19.3 carries and 3.8 targets in those outings.
Heading into year two of a three-year, $25.5 million contract, Mixon is a good bet to play a workhorse role for the Texans again in 2025. The current version of Nick Chubb is not a significant threat to Mixon's volume.
Other options:
- Ken Walker
- Jaylen Waddle
- Courtland Sutton
- Zay Flowers
Round 6
Top target: James Conner
Death, taxes, and James Conner being underrated by fantasy drafters.
Conner has turned in back-to-back top-15 finishes in PPR points per game but is once again being drafted outside the top 20 at his position.
He’s a strong value here and should be your top priority, especially if you’re still looking for your RB2.
Next best: Chris Olave
Olave carries injury and QB risk.
But we’re also talking about a 24-year-old former first-round pick who has topped a 23% target share and 2.0 yards per route in each of his first three NFL seasons.
He's as talented a player you'll find at this point of your draft. And new HC Kellen Moore figures to deploy a fast-paced, high-play-volume offense, creating more target upside for Olave.
Other options:
- David Montgomery
- Deebo Samuel
- Sam LaPorta
Round 7
Top target: Aaron Jones
Jones is 30 now and faces tougher competition this season from RB Jordan Mason. But that's all more than baked into this price tag.
Jones ranked 12th among RBs in PPR points last year, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per catch. We're projecting him to cede some carries to Mason this season, but Jones is a safe bet to dominate passing-down work again. He's topped 50 catches in three of his last four seasons.
Next best: Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes was a fantasy disappointment last year, finishing QB11 in points and registering only two top-five scoring weeks.
It wasn’t for lack of opportunity, though. Mahomes actually ranked second among QBs in expected fantasy points per game.
I’ll gladly bet on an all-world talent regressing to the mean in that department – especially with arguably the best WR trio he’s ever had at his disposal in Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown.
Other options:
- Isiah Pacheco
- Quinshon Judkins
- D'Andre Swift
- Khalil Shakir
- Ricky Pearsall
Round 8
Top target: Travis Kelce
We need to recalibrate our outlook for Kelce, who is clearly well past his prime. He set career lows last year in multiple categories, including yards per target and yards per route. His 12.3 PPR points per game were his fewest since 2015.
But those 12.3 PPR points per game were still good for seventh among TEs. Kelce ranked second at the position in expected PPR points per game, so his role was still awesome.
Even if Kelce takes another step back in 2025, he’s a solid value at this price.
Next best: Josh Downs
Downs was awesome in per-route metrics last season but was held back by QB Anthony Richardson. In games with QB Joe Flacco, he ranked 17th among WRs in PPR points per game.
Downs should get better QB play this season, whether it's from an improved Richardson or Daniel Jones.
TIP
Downs made our list of top 2025 WR Sleepers.
Other options:
- Brian Robinson
- Darnell Mooney
- Michael Pittman
Round 9
Top target: Justin Fields
It's not always pretty, but Fields has consistently produced as a QB1 with upside thanks to his high-end rushing production. His 50.2 rushing yards per game rank second among QBs over the last four seasons – behind only Lamar Jackson.
Next best: Jaylen Warren
Warren struggled with injuries early last season but rebounded to average 4.5 yards per carry over his final 11 games.
He should maintain a change-of-pace, pass-catching role at minimum this season. And, if rookie RB Kaleb Johnson falters, there's upside for Warren to take on more carries.
Other options:
- Travis Etienne
- Tyrone Tracy
- Cam Skattebo
- Keon Coleman
- Jayden Higgins
- Mark Andrews
Round 10
Top target: Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed drew a 23.3% target share and averaged 2.04 yards per route before a season-ending knee injury in Week 6 last year. Those were both top-30 marks among WRs.
He's back to 100% now and remains locked in as New Orleans’ No. 2 WR. The Saints project for a significant spike in play volume under new HC Kellen Moore.
Next best: Keon Coleman
Coleman wasn't much of a fantasy asset last year but did some exciting things for his 2025 outlook. He was used deep downfield, was productive after the catch, and drew a lot of targets near the end zone.
Now heading into year two with plenty of opportunity in a high-scoring Bills offense, Coleman is a legit breakout candidate.
Other options:
- Caleb Williams
- Dak Prescott
- Najee Harris
- Javonte Williams
- Jonnu Smith
TIP
Put this draft strategy to the test with the FREE Mock Draft Simulator.
Round 11
Top target: Tyjae Spears
Spears was banged up for much of last season but flashed late with three straight top-12 PPR finishes from Weeks 15-17.
He’s at worst a strong handcuff to Tony Pollard and at best a half of a committee and standalone fantasy option.
Next best: David Njoku
Njoku might be the single best value at TE. He averaged 9.9 targets and scored as the TE6 across nine healthy games last season. That followed TE6 and TE9 finishes the previous two years.
He'll remain a big part of Cleveland's passing game in 2025 and is a good bet for top-10 production.
Other options:
- Justin Herbert
- Drake Maye
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Christian Kirk
Round 12
Top target: J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins will battle for snaps and touches with R.J. Harvey in Denver. The rookie is certainly the more exciting player (which is why he goes multiple rounds earlier in drafts). But don't count out Dobbins' chances of earning a significant role, especially in high-value situations on passing downs and near the goal line.
Next best: Ray Davis
Here's another upside RB stash. There's a chance Davis earns additional work behind James Cook this season and becomes a RB3 or flex option. But, at minimum, he's a high-end handcuff in a strong offense. Davis racked up 152 total yards on 23 touches when Cook missed Week 6 last year.
Other options:
- Trevor Lawrence
- Rachaad White
- Jaydon Blue
- Dalton Kincaid
Round 13
Top target: Tank Bigsby
Jacksonville's backfield is crowded — but Bigsby could emerge as the lead ball carrier. He was impressive last year, ranking top-9 among 47 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per carry, and rush yards over expected per attempt.
Next best: Cedric Tillman
Tillman was uber productive over a four-game stretch as a full-time player for the Browns last year, averaging:
- 10.0 targets
- 6.0 catches
- 75.5 yards
- 0.8 TDs
He's in line for a full-time role in 2025, making him one of the best deep sleepers at WR.
Other options:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- C.J. Stroud
- Austin Ekeler
- Jake Ferguson
- Dallas Goedert
Rounds 14, 15 & 16
Top targets: High-upside bench stash, K & DST
Target a player with big upside in Round 14. You can sort by projected ceiling in your Draft War Room to find players with difference-making upside.
Some names to consider:
- Anthony Richardson
- Isaac Guerendo
- Jaylen Wright
- MarShawn Lloyd
- Roschon Johnson
- Diontae Johnson
- Pat Bryant
- Jalen Coker
- Jalen McMillan
- Pat Freiermuth
Use your final two picks on a kicker and DST. Target a kicker on a strong offense. We recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at DST throughout the season.
Here are three DSTs with favorable early-season schedules:
- Broncos (vs. TEN, at IND)
- Steelers (at NYJ, vs. SEA, at NE)
- 49ers (at SEA, at NO)
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for Pick 7, 8, or 9
Round 1
Top target: Puka Nacua
Swapping Cooper Kupp for Davante Adams toughens Nacua’s target competition a bit. But he has room to fall after averaging 10.9 targets on a massive 35.6% share in nine full games last year. Nacua ranked second among WRs in PPR points per game over that stretch.
QB Matt Stafford’s return locks Nacua in as a top-4 WR in the 2025 rankings.
Next best: Christian McCaffrey
If Nacua is off the board, you’ll find McCaffrey topping the rankings in your Draft War Room. Scary, I know.
There are safer first-round bets than a 29-year-old RB coming off a four-game season. But none has more upside.
McCaffrey played 88% of the snaps and averaged 14.3 carries and 5.3 targets across his three full games last year. That was in line with his 2023 usage: 80% snaps, 17.0 carries per game, and 5.2 targets per game. McCaffrey, of course, finished RB1 by a wide margin in 2023.
He still has that type of ceiling this year, making him worth the risk here. McCaffrey was a full participant in San Francisco's offseason program and looked good by all accounts.
Other options:
- Malik Nabers
- Nico Collins
- Ashton Jeanty
- Brian Thomas Jr.
Round 2
Top target: A.J. Brown
Brown is coming off a WR12 finish in PPR points per game, despite the Eagles attempting 29 fewer passes than any other team.
He drew a huge 31.4% target share in his 13 games, while setting career highs in yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
The Eagles will likely throw at least a little — and maybe a lot — more in 2025. That could vault Brown back into the top-8 fantasy WRs.
Next best: De'Von Achane
We don’t recommend starting RB-RB. But if you went WR in Round 1, Achane is a nice option here.
He followed a RB4 finish in PPR points per game as a rookie with a RB6 finish last year. Achane wasn't as efficient in 2024, but his volume grew to 11.9 carries and 5.1 targets per game.
If he can combine that usage with his rookie-year efficiency, Achane could really boom in 2025.
Other options:
- Jonathan Taylor
- Drake London
Round 3
Top target: Tyreek Hill
Hill is coming off a disappointing 2024 campaign. There are some red flags in terms of his age (31) and 2024 metrics. But it’s worth remembering that he played through a wrist injury all year that required offseason surgery.
We don’t expect Hill to return to truly elite levels, but the risk/reward equation feels right in the third round.
Next best: Breece Hall
Favor Hall over Hill if you opened your draft with a pair of WRs.
Hall is also coming off a disappointing season in what turned out to be an underwhelming Aaron Rodgers-led Jets offense.
New York’s swap from Rodgers to Justin Fields this offseason should mean a massive boost in run rate. Yes, Fields will siphon some of those additional carries. But expect Hall to be a bigger focal point of the offense this year.
The 24-year-old is just a season removed from a RB2 finish in PPR points and is a strong bounce-back bet in 2025.
Other options:
- Chase Brown
- Mike Evans
- Davante Adams
3D projections factor in ceiling and floor to give you a complete look at every player's fantasy value.
Round 4
Top target: Lamar Jackson
There's a good chance you'll see a QB topping your Draft War Room here. The elite QBs — whether it's Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, or even Jalen Hurts — are nice values in Round 4.
Jackson is our top-ranked QB heading into 2025 after turning in QB3 and QB1 finishes in two seasons under OC Todd Monken. Last year brought career highs in:
- Yards per pass attempt
- On-target pass percentage
- Pro Football Focus passing grade
Next best: D.J. Moore
Moore finished 14th among WRs in PPR points last year, despite QB Caleb Williams working through rookie-year struggles. His yards per target sunk to a career-low 9.6, but he set career highs with 98 catches and 140 targets on a strong 24.7% target share.
His target share could dip a bit in 2025 with tougher competition, but expect better efficiency from Moore with an improved Williams and much better play calling from new HC Ben Johnson.
Other options:
- Jayden Daniels
- James Cook
- D.K. Metcalf
- Xavier Worthy
Round 5
Top target: Alvin Kamara
Kamara was awesome last year, leading all RBs in PPR points per game and ranking fifth in expected PPR points per game.
He turns 30 in July, so there’s clearly decline risk here. But Kamara actually improved in rush yards over expected per attempt and yards after contact per attempt from 2023 to 2024. And, most importantly, he’s remained a huge part of New Orleans’ passing game. In fact, no RB has more total receptions than Kamara over the last two seasons.
Even if the rushing production tails off in 2025, the receiving should make Kamara a strong value at this price tag.
Next best: Jaylen Waddle
Waddle's volume and efficiency tanked in what was a weird 2024 season from Miami's passing game. That looks like an outlier, though, when you compare it to the rest of Waddle's career profile:
- Sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft
- Caught 104 balls as a rookie
- Finished WR13 in year 2
- Finished WR22 in year 3
The 26-year-old is a strong bounce-back bet at this cost.
Other options:
- Joe Burrow
- Joe Mixon
- Ken Walker
- Zay Flowers
Round 6
Top target: James Conner
Death, taxes, and James Conner being underrated by fantasy drafters.
Conner has turned in back-to-back top-15 finishes in PPR points per game – but is once again being drafted outside the top 20 at his position.
He’s a strong value here and should be your top priority, especially if you’re still looking for your RB2.
Next best: Chris Olave
Olave carries injury and QB risk.
But we’re also talking about a 24-year-old former first-round pick who has topped a 23% target share and 2.0 yards per route in each of his first three NFL seasons.
He's as talented a player you'll find at this point of your draft. And new HC Kellen Moore figures to deploy a fast-paced, high-play-volume offense, creating more target upside for Olave.
Other options:
- David Montgomery
- Deebo Samuel
- Sam LaPorta
Round 7
Top target: Aaron Jones
Jones is 30 now and faces tougher competition this season from RB Jordan Mason. But that's all more than baked into this price tag.
Jones ranked 12th among RBs in PPR points last year, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per catch. We're projecting him to cede some carries to Mason this season, but Jones is a safe bet to dominate passing-down work again. He's topped 50 catches in three of his last four seasons.
Next best: Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes was a fantasy disappointment last year, finishing QB11 in points and registering only two top-five scoring weeks.
It wasn’t for lack of opportunity, though. Mahomes actually ranked second among QBs in expected fantasy points per game.
I’ll gladly bet on an all-world talent regressing to the mean in that department – especially with arguably the best WR trio he’s ever had at his disposal in Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown.
Other options:
- Isiah Pacheco
- Quinshon Judkins
- D'Andre Swift
- Khalil Shakir
- Ricky Pearsall
Round 8
Top target: Travis Kelce
We need to recalibrate our outlook for Kelce, who is clearly well past his prime. He set career lows last year in multiple categories, including yards per target and yards per route. His 12.3 PPR points per game were his fewest since 2015.
But those 12.3 PPR points per game were still good for seventh among TEs. Kelce ranked second at the position in expected PPR points per game, so his role was still awesome.
Even if Kelce takes another step back in 2025, he’s a solid value at this price.
Next best: Josh Downs
Downs was awesome in per-route metrics last season but was held back by QB Anthony Richardson. In games with QB Joe Flacco, he ranked 17th among WRs in PPR points per game.
Downs should get better QB play this season, whether it's from an improved Richardson or Daniel Jones.
Other options:
- Brian Robinson
- Darnell Mooney
- Michael Pittman
Round 9
Top target: Justin Fields
It's not always pretty, but Fields has consistently produced as a QB1 with upside thanks to his high-end rushing production. His 50.2 rushing yards per game rank second among QBs over the last four seasons – behind only Lamar Jackson.
Next best: Jaylen Warren
Warren struggled with injuries early last season but rebounded to average 4.5 yards per carry over his final 11 games.
He should maintain a change-of-pace, pass-catching role at minimum this season. And, if rookie RB Kaleb Johnson falters, there's upside for Warren to take on more carries.
Other options:
- Travis Etienne
- Tyrone Tracy
- Cam Skattebo
- Keon Coleman
- Jayden Higgins
- Mark Andrews
Round 10
Top target: Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed drew a 23.3% target share and averaged 2.04 yards per route before a season-ending knee injury in Week 6 last year. Those were both top-30 marks among WRs.
He's back to 100% now and remains locked in as New Orleans’ No. 2 WR. The Saints project for a significant spike in play volume under new HC Kellen Moore.
Next best: Keon Coleman
Coleman wasn't much of a fantasy asset last year but did some exciting things for his 2025 outlook. He was used deep downfield, was productive after the catch, and drew a lot of targets near the end zone.
Now heading into year two with plenty of opportunity in a high-scoring Bills offense, Coleman is a legit breakout candidate.
TIP
We highlighted Shaheed and Coleman in 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers.
Other options:
- Caleb Williams
- Dak Prescott
- Najee Harris
- Javonte Williams
- Jonnu Smith
Round 11
Top target: Tyjae Spears
Spears was banged up for much of last season but flashed late with three straight top-12 PPR finishes from Weeks 15-17.
He’s at worst a strong handcuff to Tony Pollard and at best a half of a committee and standalone fantasy option.
Next best: David Njoku
Njoku might be the single best value at TE. He averaged 9.9 targets and scored as the TE6 across nine healthy games last season. That followed TE6 and TE9 finishes the previous two years.
He'll remain a big part of Cleveland's passing game in 2025 and is a good bet for top-10 production.
Other options:
- Justin Herbert
- Drake Maye
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Christian Kirk
Round 12
Top target: J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins will battle for snaps and touches with R.J. Harvey in Denver. The rookie is certainly the more exciting player (which is why he goes multiple rounds earlier in drafts). But don't count out Dobbins' chances of earning a significant role, especially in high-value situations on passing downs and near the goal line.
Next best: Ray Davis
Here's another upside RB stash. There's a chance Davis earns additional work behind James Cook this season and becomes a RB3 or flex option. But, at minimum, he's a high-end handcuff in a strong offense. Davis racked up 152 total yards on 23 touches when Cook missed Week 6 last year.
Other options:
- Trevor Lawrence
- Rachaad White
- Jaydon Blue
- Dalton Kincaid
TIP
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Round 13
Top target: Tank Bigsby
Jacksonville's backfield is crowded — but Bigsby could emerge as the lead ball carrier. He was impressive last year, ranking top-9 among 47 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per carry, and rush yards over expected per attempt.
Next best: Cedric Tillman
Tillman was uber productive over a four-game stretch as a full-time player for the Browns last year, averaging:
- 10.0 targets
- 6.0 catches
- 75.5 yards
- 0.8 TDs
He's in line for a full-time role in 2025, making him one of the best deep sleepers at WR.
Other options:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- C.J. Stroud
- Austin Ekeler
- Jake Ferguson
- Dallas Goedert
Rounds 14, 15 & 16
Top targets: High-upside bench stash, K & DST
Target a player with big upside in Round 14. You can sort by projected ceiling in your Draft War Room to find players with difference-making upside.
Some names to consider:
- Anthony Richardson
- Isaac Guerendo
- Jaylen Wright
- MarShawn Lloyd
- Roschon Johnson
- Diontae Johnson
- Pat Bryant
- Jalen Coker
- Jalen McMillan
- Pat Freiermuth
Use your final two picks on a kicker and DST. Target a kicker on a strong offense. We recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at DST throughout the season.
Here are three DSTs with favorable early-season schedules:
- Broncos (vs. TEN, at IND)
- Steelers (at NYJ, vs. SEA, at NE)
- 49ers (at SEA, at NO)
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for Pick 10, 11, or 12
Rounds 1 & 2
Top targets: Christian McCaffrey & Malik Nabers
McCaffrey – a 29-year-old RB coming off a four-game season – certainly isn’t the safest bet. But the upside is obvious.
McCaffrey played 88% of the snaps and averaged 14.3 carries and 5.3 targets across his three full games last year. That was in line with his 2023 usage: 80% snaps, 17.0 carries per game, and 5.2 targets per game. McCaffrey, of course, finished RB1 by a wide margin in 2023.
He still has that type of ceiling this year, making him worth the risk here.
Nabers just scored the seventh most PPR points per game by a rookie WR in NFL history.
He finished top two among WRs last year in targets, target share, and first-read target share. He faces virtually identical competition this season and should get better QB play, whether it's from Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, or Jaxson Dart.
Next best: Ashton Jeanty & Nico Collins
Draft capital makes Jeanty a strong bet for big volume this season. Four of the last six RBs to go top-10 in the NFL Draft averaged 19+ touches per game as rookies.
Jeanty will also be helped by OC Chip Kelly's historically fast-paced and run-leaning attack.
Collins scored as a top-12 WR in PPR points per game across 10 full outings last year, despite a mid-season hamstring injury.
He ranked second in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and third in yards per route among 84 qualifying WRs.
This is a bonafide superstar well worth a pick at the 1-2 turn.
Nico Collins is one of just four WRs to average 2.5+ yards per route in both 2023 and 2024.
Other options:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- De'Von Achane
- A.J. Brown
Rounds 3 & 4
Top targets: Breece Hall & Mike Evans
Hall disappointed last season in what turned out to be an underwhelming Aaron Rodgers-led Jets offense.
New York’s swap from Rodgers to Justin Fields this offseason should mean a massive boost in run rate. Yes, Fields will siphon some of those additional carries. But expect Hall to be a bigger focal point of the offense this year.
The 24-year-old is just a season removed from a RB2 finish in PPR points and is a strong bounce-back bet in 2025.
Evans saw a role change in 2024, with a career-low 11.6-yard average target depth leading to a career-low 13.6 yards per catch. But he set personal bests with a 67.3% catch rate and 2.41 yards per route.
The result in fantasy football was a WR11 finish in PPR points per game – his seventh straight top-16 finish. He's a good bet for another WR2-caliber season in 2025.
Next best: Lamar Jackson & D.J. Moore
Jackson led all QBs by over 40 fantasy points last season. In fact, he scored the most points by a QB since Patrick Mahomes in 2018.
The Ravens return essentially the same offense in 2025 – plus WR DeAndre Hopkins.
Jackson isn’t a lock to finish QB1 again. But he’s a good bet to be a difference-maker for your fantasy team.
Moore finished 14th among WRs in PPR points last year, despite QB Caleb Williams working through rookie-year struggles. His yards per target sunk to a career-low 9.6, but he set career highs with 98 catches and 140 targets on a strong 24.7% target share.
His target share could dip a bit in 2025 with tougher competition — but expect better efficiency from Moore with an improved Williams and much better play calling from new HC Ben Johnson.
Other options:
- Jayden Daniels
- Josh Allen
- Kyren Williams
- D.K. Metcalf
Rounds 5 & 6
Top targets: Alvin Kamara & Jaylen Waddle
Kamara was awesome last year, leading all RBs in PPR points per game and ranking fifth in expected PPR points per game.
He turns 30 in July, so there’s clearly decline risk here. But Kamara actually improved in rush yards over expected per attempt and yards after contact per attempt from 2023 to 2024. And, most importantly, he’s remained a huge part of New Orleans’ passing game. In fact, no RB has more total receptions than Kamara over the last two seasons.
Even if the rushing production tails off in 2025, the receiving should make Kamara a strong value at this price tag.
Waddle's volume and efficiency tanked in what was a weird 2024 season from Miami's passing game. That looks like an outlier, though, when you compare it to the rest of Waddle's career profile:
- Sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft
- Caught 104 balls as a rookie
- Finished WR13 in year 2
- Finished WR22 in year 3
The 26-year-old is a strong bounce-back bet at this cost.
Next best: Joe Mixon & Zay Flowers
Mixon ranked fourth among RBs in expected PPR points per game and sixth in actual points across his 12 full games last year. He averaged 19.3 carries and 3.8 targets in those outings.
Heading into year two of a three-year, $25.5 million contract, Mixon is a good bet to play a workhorse role for the Texans again in 2025. The current version of Nick Chubb is not a significant threat to Mixon's volume.
Flowers' volume and efficiency jumped from his rookie season, resulting in a WR25 finish in PPR points last year.
He's capable of taking another leap forward in year three. Ravens coaches have talked this offseason about needing to get the ball in Flowers' hands even more often.
Other options:
- Joe Burrow
- Ken Walker
- James Conner
- Chris Godwin
Rounds 7 & 8
Top targets: Patrick Mahomes & Aaron Jones
Mahomes was a fantasy waste last year, finishing QB11 in points and registering only two top-five scoring weeks.
It wasn’t for lack of opportunity, though. Mahomes actually ranked second among QBs in expected fantasy points per game.
I’ll gladly bet on an all-world talent regressing to the mean in that department – especially with arguably the best WR trio he’s ever had at his disposal in Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown.
Jones faces new competition this season with the arrival of RB Jordan Mason, who was the better runner by most metrics last year.
But Jones still figures to hang on to lead ball-carrying duties. And his passing-game role is safe. Mason owns just 14 career catches, while Jones has averaged 3+ catches per game in five of his last six seasons.
Next best: Isiah Pacheco & Khalil Shakir
Pacheco's 2024 season was derailed by a broken leg in September. He was operating as a workhorse before that injury, though, and the Chiefs did not make any significant additions to the backfield this offseason.
A healthy Pacheco remains a good bet to lead his backfield. Remember that he finished 14th among RBs in PPR points per game in 2023.
Shakir is coming off a PPR WR37 finish, despite missing two games and scoring just four TDs. There’s room for even better production in 2025.
Shakir signed a four-year, $53 million extension this offseason, guaranteeing him a significant role in Buffalo’s passing game.
Other options:
- D'Andre Swift
- Jayden Reed
- Stefon Diggs
- Josh Downs
- Travis Kelce
- T.J. Hockenson
Rounds 9 & 10
Top targets: Jaylen Warren & Rashid Shaheed
Warren struggled with injuries early last season but rebounded to average 4.5 yards per carry over his final 11 games.
He should maintain a change-of-pace, pass-catching role at minimum this season. And, if rookie RB Kaleb Johnson falters, there's upside for Warren to take on more carries.
Shaheed drew a 23.3% target share and averaged 2.04 yards per route before a season-ending knee injury in Week 6 last year. Those were both top-30 marks among WRs.
He's back to 100% now and remains locked in as New Orleans’ No. 2 WR. The Saints project for a significant spike in play volume under new HC Kellen Moore.
Next best: Justin Fields & Keon Coleman
It's not always pretty, but Fields has consistently produced as a QB1 with upside thanks to his high-end rushing production. His 50.2 rushing yards per game rank second among QBs over the last four seasons – behind only Lamar Jackson.
Justin Fields' 375-point ceiling projection ranks sixth highest among QBs.
Coleman wasn't much of a fantasy asset last year but did some exciting things for his 2025 outlook. He was used deep downfield, was productive after the catch, and drew a lot of targets near the end zone.
Now heading into year two with plenty of opportunity in a high-scoring Bills offense, Coleman is a legit breakout candidate.
Other options:
- Caleb Williams
- Travis Etienne
- Jonnu Smith
Rounds 11 & 12
Top targets: Tyjae Spears & David Njoku
Spears was banged up for much of last season but flashed late with three straight top-12 PPR finishes from Weeks 15-17. He’s at worst a strong handcuff to Tony Pollard and at best a half of a committee and standalone fantasy option.
Njoku might be the single best value at TE. He averaged 9.9 targets and scored as the TE6 across nine healthy games last season. That followed TE6 and TE9 finishes the previous two years.
He'll remain a big part of Cleveland's passing game in 2025 and is a good bet for top-10 production.
Next best: J.K. Dobbins & Marquise Brown
Dobbins will battle for snaps and touches with R.J. Harvey in Denver. The rookie is certainly the more exciting player (which is why he goes multiple rounds earlier in drafts). But don't count out Dobbins' chances of earning a significant role, especially in high-value situations on passing downs and near the goal line.
A shoulder injury cost Brown the first 14 games of last season. But he made an immediate impact upon return, totaling nine catches on 15 targets across Weeks 16 and 17. Brown caught just five of 13 targets across three playoff games but ran a route on 70+% of pass plays in all three.
He re-upped with the Chiefs on a one-year deal before free agency even opened, which suggests both he and the team have a clear idea of his 2025 role. He's a cheap piece of this high-powered passing game.
Other options:
- Justin Herbert
- Trevor Lawrence
- Rachaad White
- Dalton Kincaid
Rounds 13 & 14
Top targets: Ray Davis & Tank Bigsby
There's a chance Davis earns additional work behind James Cook this season and becomes a RB3 or flex option. But, at minimum, he's a high-end handcuff in a strong offense. Davis racked up 152 total yards on 23 touches when Cook missed Week 6 last year.
TIP
Davis made our list of top 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers.
Jacksonville's backfield is crowded — but Bigsby could emerge as the lead ball carrier. He was impressive last year, ranking top-9 among 47 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per carry, and rush yards over expected per attempt.
Next best: Cedric Tillman & Austin Ekeler
Tillman was uber productive over a four-game stretch as a full-time player for the Browns last year, averaging:
- 10.0 targets
- 6.0 catches
- 75.5 yards
- 0.8 TDs
He's in line for a full-time role in 2025, making him one of the best deep sleepers at WR.
Ekeler won't be a league winner. But if you went relatively light at RB and need a floor option, the veteran is a nice value here. Ekeler finished 32nd among RBs in PPR points last year and will continue to control passing-down work in 2025.
Other options:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- C.J. Stroud
- Isaac Guerendo
- Jaylen Wright
- MarShawn Lloyd
- Roschon Johnson
- Diontae Johnson
- Pat Bryant
- Jalen Coker
- Jalen McMillan
- Jake Ferguson
- Dallas Goedert
Rounds 15 & 16
Use your final two picks on a kicker and DST. Target a kicker on a strong offense. We recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at DST throughout the season.
Here are three DSTs with favorable early-season schedules:
- Broncos (vs. TEN, at IND)
- Steelers (at NYJ, vs. SEA, at NE)
- 49ers (at SEA, at NO)
The Ultimate Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: A Customized, Dynamic Cheat Sheet
Having round-by-round strategy heading into your draft is important.
But fantasy football drafts are unpredictable. You need to be nimble. You need to adjust on the fly to capture the most value.
You need a customized, dynamic cheat sheet.
The Draft War Room takes our award-winning player projections and tailors them to your league’s scoring and lineup settings, delivering a precise set of rankings just for you.
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Frequently Asked Questions About Draft Strategy
Who is the number one fantasy pick in 2025?
Ja'Marr Chase is the number one pick in 2025 fantasy drafts. He scored 86 more PPR points than any other WR last year and returns to a similar situation this season.
What position should I draft first in PPR league?
The position you should draft first in a PPR league is likely a WR. The scoring system gives a big boost to players who catch a lot of passes. That said, RBs Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Jahmyr Gibbs are also worth picks in Round 1.
What is the best position order to draft in fantasy football?
The best position order to draft in fantasy football has traditionally been first. But some scientific data suggests that a later position like 6 or 7 can actually be optimal.
How many WR and RB should I draft?
How many WRs and RBs you should draft is typically 5, 6 or 7 in traditional formats with a 16-round draft. Of course, that can change depending on your scoring rules and starting lineup requirements.
What round to draft a QB in fantasy football?
Try to be one of the first or last teams to take a QB in your draft. Elite QBs like Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels are worth their price. But you can also find strong values late, such as Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, and Trevor Lawrence.
When should I draft a kicker or defense in fantasy?
You should commonly draft a kicker or defense in the very late rounds in fantasy. Sometimes it might even be a good idea to pick up kickers and defenses on the waiver wire and stream them.
Draft Strategy: Tips & Tricks
7 Expert-Level Drafting Tips
1. Use Unique Rankings To Give Yourself an Edge
Many of your competitors will be drafting off of the same rankings (think: ESPN or Yahoo). Tough to get an edge that way. Put in the work. Stay up-to-date on the news. And don’t be afraid to break away from the herd when it comes to your rankings. It’s an easy way to out-draft your competition.
2. Weaponize ADP To Outsmart Your Competition
ADP is like having your opponent’s playbook. Whether subconsciously or not, ADP has a huge influence on draft behavior. Drafters rarely stray too far from it. Knowing which players your opponents are likely – and unlikely – to draft next can give you a big strategic advantage. (Hint: Use our ADP Market Index to help.)
3. Catch League-Winning Breakout Candidates
Leagues are won by nailing one or two breakout late-round picks. Think Jayden Daniels or Brian Thomas Jr. last year. When you’re on the clock and deciding between two or more players, always ask yourself: “Which of these guys is more likely to be the league-winning, had-to-have player?” Then take that guy.
4. Learn to Predict Your Opponents’ Picks
Drafting is part science (rankings, ADP, positional value) and part art. No two drafts will play out same. It’s your job to recognize the flow of your draft and react accordingly. It’s especially important to track positional needs. For example, if teams near you have selected a bunch of WRs but few RBs, you can assume they’ll be targeting RBs soon. Get out ahead of them and snag a RB with your next pick.
5. Discover the Next Bucky Irving
Let your league mates waste later-round picks on handcuffing their own RBs. You can get the jump on them by targeting RBs behind fragile starters. That was Irving, Tyrone Tracy, and Rico Dowdle this time last year. And we’re eyeing some intriguing new candidates for 2025.
6. Draft Immobile QBs in 2025 (Wait … What?!)
Running QBs are fantasy gold. Problem is, that’s no longer a secret. In many cases, the pendulum has swung too far toward those guys. And that’s turned some less-mobile QBs into values. Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott pop as undervalued QBs in 2025 drafts – despite their lack of rushing yards.
7. Chase opportunity at RB… and talent at WR
Fantasy scoring at RB is closely tied to playing time and touches. Target RBs who project to get the rock a lot. WR is a more talent-driven position. Targets are earned, not given. That’s why advanced metrics like targets per route and yards per route run should be key factors in your WR rankings.
3 Fatal Draft Mistakes
1. Don't Match Your Rankings To Last Year’s Stats (Consider What's Changed)
Overweighing last year's fantasy finishes could cost you on draft day. Too much changes from year to year. That includes coaching staffs, offensive schemes, rookies, free agents, etc. That’s why it’s crucial that you live in the present – and weigh all the offseason changes when creating your 2025 player rankings.
2. Don’t Be Stubborn About Your Pre-Draft Plan
Instead, be flexible. You might go in with a Zero-RB strategy. But if enough teams grab WRs by the second round – a workhorse RB might fall into your lap. That’s when it’s time to scoop up the player who will best help your team win … not reach for a position because it was part of your pre-draft plan.
3. Don’t Pass Up Player Value to Chase Positional ‘Need’
NFL teams that try to fill “needs” (instead of adopting the “best player available” model) most often crap out on their draft picks. Same holds true for you. Reaching for a “need” player most often blows your chances at winning. And remember: Drafting the best player available gives you valuable trade chips down the road.
Advanced Draft Strategy
7 Key Strategies for Tailored Player Rankings
The most advanced fantasy football draft strategy for any format, and any league, is a “Value Based Draft Strategy.” It can take different forms, and be based on any number of draft-value indicators.
Draft Sharks' value-based draft strategy actually has 17 Draft Value Indicators. Here are 7 crucial ones you can use in your draft:
1. Master Cross Positional Value
Which positions are most valuable in your league? Maybe QBs in a superflex. How do RBs stack up vs. WRs in PPR leagues? Understanding values across positions involves using a specific algorithm to analyze player values. It weighs various factors like scoring rules, starting-lineup requirements, ADP, and league settings.
2. Track Positional Scarcity on the Fly
This one is super important but also super hard. To measure positional scarcity, you need to track each pick – and see how it impacts the player pool. If there are seven QBs taken by the fifth round, that position becomes scarce. And QBs suddenly increase in value in your draft.
3. Prioritize Players With Greater Upside
You’re in the 11th round and torn between three players with roughly the same draft value. You need to highlight the player with the highest fantasy ceiling. Then make sure he doesn't slip by you in the heat of the draft. It might sound simple, but it’s mission-critical to identify these breakout players and pull the trigger when the time is right.
4. Look Out for “Bust” Red Flags
You probably know the red flags of a potential bust. But are you factoring them into your value of each player? Age, declining production, bad offensive line, competition for touches, a new offensive scheme that de-emphasizes a player’s role. Don’t blow your draft capital on a player who is screaming “bust!”
5. Use a Scientific Injury Risk Assessment
You know the scenario… You spend a second-round pick on a stud WR – and in Week 2, he suffers a soft-tissue injury and misses the next four weeks. Brutal. Injuries aren’t 100% predictable. But you can get reliable scientific data to avoid the biggest potential injury risk players.
6. Always Use Correlated ADP
This one is huge. Using ADP (Average Draft Position) is the ultimate measure to find value. The problem is this: If you use a redraft PPR ADP to prepare for your non-PPR Dynasty league, you’re doing yourself more harm than good. Find reliable ADP that is correlated to your specific rules and format.
7. Avoid Bye-Week Conflicts
You’d think this one would be so easy. But you know the truth. You’re in the heat of your draft, you’re on the clock, and bang … you double-up on the same bye week at a crucial position. You’re now forced to fix that mistake at some point in your draft – or later in your season.
Key Insight: There are a lot of factors that go into drafting for true player value. It’s not just about using “position tiers” or employing a “Zero” or “Hero” RB strategy. It’s about using a mix of scientific metrics and educated guesses in predicting player production. And how you and your opponents behave during critical times in your draft.
How To Execute This Strategy: You’ve got a lot to focus on if you want to execute these draft strategies in real-time – amid the chaos of your draft. In fact, it’s humanly impossible for anyone to implement every key strategy… AND work out every algorithm essential to a winning draft.
The real solution is to get real-time help from an AI “Draft War Room.”
Discover the Live-Draft Sync That Strategizes While You Draft
If what you’ve read so far makes sense, here’s a draft tool you need to learn more about.
It’s actually TWO tools that pair together so you can dominate your draft with one super tool!
A live-draft sync super-powered by the “Draft War Room” (DWR)
This super draft tool automatically re-ranks players on your draft board in real-time. Those dynamic player values are based on a variety of factors, including positional scarcity, team needs, injury risk, breakout potential, and bust risk. In fact, there are 17 draft-value indicators it calculates in real-time to come up with your player suggestions.
How It Works: You're just three clicks away from your league and draft being live-synced. From there, you’re on the road to draft domination. And it works across multiple platforms (ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, Underdog, and Sleeper, to name a few). For multiple league formats (dynasty, rookie, keeper, best ball, auction, superflex – and, of course, redraft).
What It Means For You: You get dynamic player values customized to your league. Simply. And in real-time. When it's your turn to pick, the Draft War Room offers instant player suggestions tailored to everything happening in your draft. You’ll be unburdened from the pressure of being "on the clock." While at the same time getting specific player suggestions that are scientifically based and strategically sound.
Key Insights: No one who’s serious about winning their draft can use 2015 technology in the competitive environment of 2025. It’s really that simple. We know too much about the science behind successful drafting to keep basing decisions on “gut” and “educated guesses.” Yes, sometimes we roll with those two things. But we need to have a lot more (technology) at our disposal to be consistent fantasy football champions.
How to Execute This Strategy: Make sure you pick a “live-draft sync” over a simple “league sync.” A league sync doesn't work during your draft to adjust player values in real-time. To learn more about the live-sync option, check out this page explaining our live-sync tool.
