Justin Fields Is the Fantasy X-Factor Hiding in Plain Sight

Bottom Line: Hall's a Solid Value in late Round 3

Hall has the ability, opportunity, coaching staff, and O-line to rebound in 2025. View him as a fringe, risk/reward RB1.

2024 Summary

Hall Started Strong But Didn't Finish That Way

Across 16 games, Hall racked up 876 rushing yards (54.7 per game) and 483 receiving yards (30.1 per game). He totaled eight TDs – five rushing and three receiving.

Hall’s 15.1 PPR points per game marked a career low. He slotted 16th in total PPR points, dropping to 17th in points per game.

Hall finished RB8, RB4, and RB11 over the first three weeks. He posted only four additional top-12 fantasy finishes over his final 13 games.

Carry Share Rises But Target Share Dips

Here’s a look at Hall’s usage in 2023 vs. 2024:

So, the Jets granted a bit more work on the ground while removing some of his receiving volume.

Rookie RB Braelon Allen accounts for one 2024 difference. He managed only 8.3 carries per game, though. And that number is boosted by a Week 14 spot-start at Miami.

In total, Hall averaged 13 carries and 3.5 catches per game, figures in line with his ‘23 output.

Hall Underwhelms Outside of One Metric

Hall was almost two years removed from an ACL tear at the start of last season.

So it was a surprise to see him finish with career lows in:

• Pro Football Focus rush grade (37th out of 47 qualifying RBs)
• Yards after contact per attempt (23rd)
• PFF Elusive Rating (26th)
• Rush yards over expected per attempt (28th)
• PFF receiving grade (34th out of 37)
• Yards per route run (19th out of 37)

Hall’s explosive rush rate (10.5%) helped boost his fantasy output. Per SumerSports, that ranked eighth in a sample of 31 RBs with 150+ carries.

Aaron Rodgers, O-line Fail to Elevate Offense

This offense wasn’t exactly a juggernaut.

Despite 17 games from Aaron Rodgers, the Jets finished 24th in yards and 25th in points.

They ranked 32nd in rush attempts, 31st in rush yards, and 30th in rush TDs.

The Jets’ O-line wasn’t difference-making, finishing 19th in PFF’s run blocking grades and 29th in ESPN’s run block win rate.

Hall Grouped In With Elite Receiving Backs

Hall is one of four RBs to average 30+ receiving yards per game in each of the last three seasons.

His company? Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey.

Hall's Knee Will Bear Watching

Hall missed one late-season game with a left MCL and hyperextension injury, per ESPN’s Rich Cimini. The injury was to the same knee that sustained an ACL tear in October of 2022.

Hall played through the injury after a Week 12 bye, then was sidelined for Week 14.

2025 Expectations

Will He Stay a Three-Down Back?

Hall is set to play out the final year of his rookie contract.

We project him to handle another lead back role with an average of 13.8 carries and 3.1 catches per game. In June, Hall signaled a potential three-down role.

He’ll face competition from second-year backs Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis.

Allen, still only 21, ranked 46th out of 47 RBs in rush yards over expected per attempt.

Davis scattered 30 carries across nine games and showed some promise with 5.8 yards per carry. We don't see him as a legit threat to Hall.

Fields Adds A Dynamic Rushing Threat

QB Justin Fields enters the starting lineup after a short stint in Pittsburgh. Expect to see some zone-read concepts in an attempt to maximize his talent.

Fields’ passing limitations – and a weak WR corps behind Garrett Wilson – might force some crowded boxes. Interestingly, Hall averaged only 6.36 box defenders per rush last year – 28th in a sample of 31 RBs, per SumerSports.

The Jets’ O-line at least looks packed with talent.

It starts on the edges with Round 1 picks Olu Fashanu (LT) and Armond Membou (RT). Along the interior, OGs John Simpson and Alijah Vera-Tucker make up one of the league’s best run-blocking duos. C Joe Tippmann is among the best pivots in the league, finishing 2024 as PFF’s No. 8 graded run-blocker.

Don't Buy Talk of a Timeshare

HC Aaron Glenn indicated a potential timeshare in the backfield. It might sound damning for Hall, but let’s note two things.

The first is that Glenn – a defensive-minded HC – won’t call plays. That role falls to former Lions pass-game coordinator Tanner Engstrand.

His offensive approach is a mystery, as he’s never called plays at the pro level. But we’re betting on a unit similar to Detroit’s motion-friendly, play-action heavy style with former OC Ben Johnson. They’re also likely to lean run with Fields under center.

Also: Keep in mind that Glenn’s quote is from March. It doesn’t exactly guarantee we’ll see a three-headed attack come September.

The Data Says Hall's in His Prime

Our historical aging curves provide us with a data-driven look at production trends. They show that on average, age 24 RBs drafted in Rounds 1 or 2 deliver 98% of their peak fantasy production.

So, Hall is in a sweet spot. He enters the summer well distanced from his past knee trouble.

Garrett Wilson

Mason Taylor

Bottom Line: Taylor Isn't a TE to Count On in '25

Taylor hits the league with a pro-ready skill set. We just don’t see a TE1 ceiling on a Jets offense that figures to prioritize the run with QB Justin Fields.

2024 Summary

Taylor Outperforms an NFL Stud ... as a Freshman

Taylor set LSU TE records for career receptions (129) and receiving yards (1,308).

As a true freshman, he notched 38 grabs and 414 yards, out-producing sophomore WR Brian Thomas Jr.

Taylor’s production declined in 2023 (36-348-1) as Thomas and Malik Nabers took center stage. But the TE rebounded for career highs in catches (55) and yards (546) last fall.

He Looks Reliable, Not Difference Making

Let’s isolate Taylor’s 2024 production.

Among 35 TEs with 50+ targets, he ranked:

• 18th in catch rate
• 27th in yards after catch per reception
• 30th in yards per catch
• 31st in yards per route run

He posted just an 11.1% Dominator Rating – 17th among 21 Combine TEs.

Those are underwhelming finishes. Taylor, however, proved reliable with an excellent 1.8% drop rate. It’s also worth noting that he turned just 21 in May, so he likely hasn’t peaked yet.

Taylor Played With Some Excellent QBs

LSU lost Nabers and QB Jayden Daniels to the NFL. They elevated QB Garrett Nussmeier, a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2026 draft.

Nussmeier ranked fifth in the country in pass yards, boosted by a high-volume attack. He averaged 40.3 passes per game.

Taylor Plays Through Pain as a Sophomore

Remember Taylor’s down 2023?

Well, the production dip might not have been entirely due to his talented teammates. Taylor sustained an ankle injury that September and dealt with lingering pain.

Otherwise, he’s proven durable as a college athlete.

2025 Expectations

Rookie Off to a Promising Start

HC Aaron Glenn said the team has a “clear vision” for how to utilize Taylor.

“Mason is exactly who we thought he was,” Glenn said at rookie camp. “He has dynamic movements. He can really catch the ball. He did a good job catching the ball away from his body. He’s quick to bring it in and get north and south exactly like we want.”

There’s a chance Mason finishes second in targets behind Garrett Wilson.

Just consider the Jets’ WR depth:

• Josh Reynolds
• Allen Lazard
• Tyler Johnson
• Malachi Corley
• Arian Smith

None of the veterans hit 550 yards last season, while Smith profiles as a low-volume deep threat.

Mason doesn’t have much competition at TE, either. Veteran options include Jeremy Ruckert (35 catches in three seasons) and Stone Smartt (31 catches in three seasons).

Justin Fields Adds Layer of Uncertainty

QB Justin Fields signed a two-year deal in March. He’s set to start ahead of veteran backup Tyrod Taylor.

Fields’ hot and cold passing tendencies add a layer of uncertainty here. Fields enters 2025 with a career yards per attempt of 7.0; a career completion rate of 61.1%.

This O-line looks improved, though, and that might lessen some of the blocking responsibilities for Taylor. The Jets boast a pair of highly athletic tackles in LT Olu Fashanu and RT Armand Membou.

It’s at least noteworthy to see how TE Pat Freiermuth – another Round 2 pick – performed alongside Fields in 2024. The situations are similar, with the Jets presenting a clear No. 1 WR (as George Pickens did) and a likely run-based offense.

In Fields’ six starts, Freiermuth averaged:

• 4.3 targets
• 3.7 catches
• 32.3 yards
• 0.33 TDs

Freiermuth finished at TE12, TE12, TE15, TE2, TE14, and TE28 over that stretch.

Of course, he was a fourth-year TE last fall, so this isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison.

Jets Invest in a Ben Johnson Understudy

The Jets are on their sixth OC since 2017 after hiring Tanner Engstrand, a first-time play-caller.

The former Lions passing-game coordinator has ties to Ben Johnson and Jim Harbaugh. Engstrand mentioned both guys as influential while noting his initial background in a West Coast offense.

The 43-year-old spent the past five seasons with Johnson, gaining a front-row seat to one of the NFL’s top offenses.

Since Johnson took over as OC in Detroit in 2022, the Lions have ranked fourth, third, and second in yards and fifth, fifth, and first in points.

Johnson’s units were known for their creativity, namely in pre-snap motion and play-action concepts. If Engstrand adapts to his personnel, it’s reasonable to expect a run-centric approach in 2025.

We’ll search for clues about offensive scheme and tendencies this summer.